Tuesday, 30 August 2011
Thursday, 25 August 2011
US Initial Unempl Claims fade
A loser today. Went in as per my rules, but unfortunately a pullback moment was not sustainable and it reversed immediately and trade never seen a profit.
Correction to US Durables trade
I am an idiot. I posted a trade (and took it!!!) on EURO/USD, however my plan assumes a trade is taken on EUR/JPY as I never trade US news on EUR/USD!!! I lost 10 pips yesterday, but if taken properly on E/J it would yeild 7 points instead!!!
Wednesday, 24 August 2011
US Durable Goods fade - loss
A loosing fade trade today: SL10 with TP7. Release created unusual for this weak release reaction, probably due to lack of other news from US. After producing one reversal candle market went again into buying EURO/USD and quickly trade hit SL. Next please.
IFO Bussines climate fade
Small trade on aftermath of IFO release. First M1 candled pushed lower but reversed. We would be waiting for the confirming candle on M1 (since the first candle body was under 10 pips) and enter on its close. I did not take this trade, but I would go for 5 pips SL and 7 pips TP. Also it was possible to close half of the trade at 7 pips and let other half run with 7 pips trail stop. In this case second half would yield 1-2 pips only as trade quickly reversed.
Tuesday, 23 August 2011
CAD RS fade trade
According to setup, first M1 reversal candle with TP7/SL9. I came late, so entered on retracement, that bettered my position by few pips, but used TP and SL that would be used with original entry. +7 played out, my position managed profit of 11 pips thank to late entry.
German ZEW fade trade
S/D 15M E/U trade
Pretty heavy supply zone, set pending order which triggered during the night. I took profit manually as price approached 1.44 where it could reverse or stagnate. +36 pips on .5 lot cashed, equal to 18 normal pips, pretty much my daily target. However yesterday wasn't very good day as I managed to lose more than I gained so I will shoot for another 10 normal pips for today to break week positive.
Monday, 22 August 2011
VSA S/D 15M U/CAD trade
I took this trade primarily from VSA perspective as it did not reach my level where I looked for long (STT from 1D area). However VSA shown some good reversal sign and I decided to go after I have seen price reversed from small supply area on M15 from Friday. I took only 10 pips as bias is bearish and I will be looking to long from a lower level using VSA.
First trade of the week - a 33 pips winner on G/U
Ok, that was one with a bigger stop, so it accounts to win of normal 10 pips, but entry was placed last week and trade got triggered on Friday late night, I closed down for profit manually when opened charts this morning as price struggles at 1.65 which is a very strong resistance area and supply is abundant. My mistake in the first place was to place take profit at 1.6520, I should have noted significance of 1.65 and place tp just before that. Nevertheless week is nicely opened with a profit trade.
Friday, 19 August 2011
CAD CPI fade
I did not take this one, was busy otherwise, but here is the aftermath: TP10 SL10 on M1 would work awesome.
Many losers on pending order entry, great winner on VSA
Today was a bad day for lazy trading - that is using pending entries. I got 3 losers on EU (however only one entry was justified, other two were rushed in, one of these was market order but I opened it without confirmation so no different than limit ones). However I waited a bit and took market order entry after EU had topped out and produced down candle on decent volume, after market shown buying climax and high churn. I took 30 pips out of it, but there were at least 10 more to gulp. As usual. Best trading in terms of closing out is when I am not around. My EU win covered all three losers, the only damage left to fix is from AU loser. I will look for confirmed trades only today since there are some commercial and central bank buying happening today which drives market through supply-demand areas with ease.
Thursday, 18 August 2011
Some good links
Lowering risk by using multiple time frames: http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20110816/featured_article.htm
Why you need to fall down to rise up: http://www.fxstreet.com/education/trading-strategies/lessons-from-the-pros/2010/07/27/
Why you need to fall down to rise up: http://www.fxstreet.com/education/trading-strategies/lessons-from-the-pros/2010/07/27/
Wednesday, 17 August 2011
EURUSD scalp M5 with VSA
Similar setup to AUDUSD one. Once I saw support zone given up, and break through candle had a big volume (selling climax as per indicator, but rather mark down), I placed pending buy at the bottom of the zone. It took me in, closed manually for 11 pips at the level where previous two candles indicated minor demand.
Two successful AUDUSD M5 scalps
First one is using sell stop below the previous support area with a view that if triggered the break through will be bigger. Took 11 pips. After this trade placed limit offer at the bottom of the same area with a view that it will bounce up again and take me in again. This is what happened. Take profit order triggered for healthy 23.2 pips profit. In both cases stops were above the zone.
5M VSA S/D scalp
Eurodollar was rising through the day, seemed to top out, then gone through the support area of previous demand. I put a limit bid order at the lower side of this area. Took 11 pips profit.
Tuesday, 16 August 2011
UK CPI trade
While I recon it is one of the best fade trades on calender, today it wasn't so good. I used M15 to enter, but looked at M1 for VSA signal. Once I got it I was in. Trade moved into profit immediately, but I had a big spread on broker so wasn't looking to close soon. It moved about 15 pips into profit and then reversed. After few moves like that it actually went to 30 pips profit where my TP1 was but failed to close part of the trade due to damned spread again. Eventually Fitch announced AAA reaffirmation for US and GU blasted up. Quite soon it hit my SL, which I extended above supply level at 1.6400-1.6415. If I would be entering on the first reversed M15 candle I would be stopped out almost right away. It happens. Move on.
Monday, 15 August 2011
Trading psychology
Excellent (as usual) from Sam Seiden about trading losses.
http://www.fxstreet.com/education/trading-strategies/lessons-from-the-pros/2010/07/27/
http://www.fxstreet.com/education/trading-strategies/lessons-from-the-pros/2010/07/27/
Trading both ways
Idea is to put a set of extra rules for some simple long-term systemto enhance it in a way it will produce less or smaller losses. The key is that we look for a main direction on daily chart and enter as per system rules. However we are also looking on a smaller time frame, like 4h or 1h (for main direction on daily) using similar rule set for a temporary reversal of the main trend and enter on a lower time frame in an opposite direction to main time frame, with the same position size, effectively hedging against moves against main direction. Once trade is hedged, the stop loss on a main longer time-frame trade is removed. We keep both position until there is a sign of lower time frame reversal in a direction of main trend. We close a secondary position in a profit or in a small loss, and continue with a main position. Also we re-set a stop loss using current higher high or lower low. If by this time we can see that original entry is no longer valid, we close out both trades and look for a trade from scratch.
Level scalping
We all know that most if not all tech trading is based around support and resistance, be it fixed like historic levels and psych levels or moving like EMAs and pivots.
US Empire State Survey Live Trade
Here is the trade I took live just now. According to my setup I took it with 25 pips Stop Loss and progressive take profit at 15,30 and up to 60 pips profit on equal parts. However I looked at higher time frame before the trade and put some support and resistance lines as well as fibbed swing low to swing high for last weeks. Trade went short on EurJpy so I looked to long it. My 15 and 30 pips targets were before the next resistance line as well as before the 62.3% Fib line. However my 60 pips target was above resistance and Fib, so I decided 60 pips target to be optional and leave an option to close it early if price struggles. This is how it went...
My EA took 1/3 of position at 15 and then another 1/3 at 30 pips, however price pulled back and struggled showing some supply up there. Then approached 30TP again and system took another profit. I had very small position left (since there were not precise 1/3 but little less) which I closed manually in the same region. It is unlikely that price would go much further up without a swing down which would take me out of the trade so I cashed it in. Net result is 15+33+30 pips on average 27 pips gain on 25 pips risk which I consider excellent for high-probability scalping setups.
Thursday, 11 August 2011
US Initial Unempl. claims trade
I missed this one, as I looked at CAD Trade Balance instead and it was same time with Claims, and of course Claims have priority. CA Balance trade lost, while proper trade on Claims would be a winning one for 7 pips with risk of 10 pips.
Classic VSA scalp snapshot!
Classic VSA scalp setup! I wasn't near to take it. You see mark-up, then high volume churn that failed, you can also call it test, very good signal that supply has exhausted.
G/U 5M buy setup from supply zone
+14 pips on GU with 10 pips SL, idea for trade taken from @50pips blog!
E/U 5M Supply-Demand scalp
Just grabbed my 22 pips today on EU, short off formed supply/resistance with weekly pivot in there. Looked for candle volume, but it was relatively low and not enlightening. So I guess I just spotted a good level that is it. I planned originally for some 60 pips but decided it's too much to expect from M5 chart setup and better not to be greedy even on demo, steady profits make balance.
Stop was at 1.4290 in 19 pips from entry, could be closer actually, 15 pips.
AU EC trade
Another glorious setup. Unfortunately I did not trade it live, as my current broker had around 5 pips spread on A/U and with stop loss of 15 pips it would consume third of it immediately and increase risks. While I am waiting on getting account open with another broker, this setup would work like a charm:
- over 60 pips on first minute spike and around 85-90 to the low
- trading it off the 15M charts
- since the very first candle provided a bill pull back and was more looking like a pin bar it justified the entry without waiting for the next 15M candle
- 25 pips would be easily obtained (in fact up to 70) with 15 pips stop loss, trade never went into negative except spread on opening
- over 60 pips on first minute spike and around 85-90 to the low
- trading it off the 15M charts
- since the very first candle provided a bill pull back and was more looking like a pin bar it justified the entry without waiting for the next 15M candle
- 25 pips would be easily obtained (in fact up to 70) with 15 pips stop loss, trade never went into negative except spread on opening
Tuesday, 9 August 2011
UK Industrial production trade
Here is my first trade today according to new studies:
- one minute made over 20 pips,
- overall move down was 46 pips
- time frame chosen 5M
- stop loss 20
- take profit 30
Result: profit target reached!
- one minute made over 20 pips,
- overall move down was 46 pips
- time frame chosen 5M
- stop loss 20
- take profit 30
Result: profit target reached!
Monday, 8 August 2011
Probability trading
Ok, I finally started my big project on quantifying a strategy for trading after-news underlying market mechanics. I plan to develop trading EA where appropriate setups for every type of news will be loaded and trade will be done automatically. Some big pips cooking, guys!
I have only gone through 11 reports and selected only 8 possible to trade and on average (using statistics for the last 12 months) it gives about 190 pips monthly weighed for 30 pips risk (obviously different setups have different SL but I put everything for the common divider). And only from 11 reports out of 50+ relatively important every month!
Setups are of high probability, i.e. they give ABOVE 4:1 win/loss ratio on pips won/lost, and 70-90% win/loss ratio on trades. There is no tendency to have repeated losses as all trades except one happen once a month so there no issue with "wrong market phase".
I really expect that it will be possible to trade as much as 5% of account with this strategy and consider it low-risk, in this case it will give a steady 25% account gain monthly.
This type of trade does not rely on trends, ranges or anything familiar from technical trade and exploits a very core feature of market mechanism which is impossible to eliminate. Strategy can be traded on any broker with small spreads and fast execution, typically any ECN MT4 even "ECN" (pretender), and as it trades AFTER news release (from 1-5, to 15-30 minutes after) there should not be issue with spread or slippage.
I plan to start testing it live this week manually and trading EA development will get started this week too. Wish me luck!
I have only gone through 11 reports and selected only 8 possible to trade and on average (using statistics for the last 12 months) it gives about 190 pips monthly weighed for 30 pips risk (obviously different setups have different SL but I put everything for the common divider). And only from 11 reports out of 50+ relatively important every month!
Setups are of high probability, i.e. they give ABOVE 4:1 win/loss ratio on pips won/lost, and 70-90% win/loss ratio on trades. There is no tendency to have repeated losses as all trades except one happen once a month so there no issue with "wrong market phase".
I really expect that it will be possible to trade as much as 5% of account with this strategy and consider it low-risk, in this case it will give a steady 25% account gain monthly.
This type of trade does not rely on trends, ranges or anything familiar from technical trade and exploits a very core feature of market mechanism which is impossible to eliminate. Strategy can be traded on any broker with small spreads and fast execution, typically any ECN MT4 even "ECN" (pretender), and as it trades AFTER news release (from 1-5, to 15-30 minutes after) there should not be issue with spread or slippage.
I plan to start testing it live this week manually and trading EA development will get started this week too. Wish me luck!
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