OrderFlow scalping: mixed bag of trades today

Today I had two trading sessions: first I did with Nick in the room, but taking trades myself, although there were in most time similar to Nick's so I assume he's influencing me, wasn't good day, difficult PA, undecided, maybe due to two expiring options on EU, and FOMC later in the day. 

Then Sander took over and since he trades much less I did trade on my own and results were better, despite tight-range PA continued. I need to practice solitary trading I believe, but room at RockShore is great.

I took 13 trades, 70% winning, max drawdown 0.5%, best trade 1.06%, gross profit 3.6%, gross loss 1.25%,  total net profit 2.35% (23.5 pips).

OrderFlow-assisted scalping

Had a decent scalping session today: took three long trades on EU towards expiring option at 1.3725, market was around 1.3680. Made +10, +20, +13 pips. Then engaged into scalping, bit of mess, lots of small winners and losers, my mistake was I started doing it too late, around mid-way through US session, and the best time is start of London. In any case did around 30 trades during the day, net result +70 pips.

Some trading rules to follow:

To do:
1. Wait for a decent trend to establish on M1, don't trade ranging market on M1.
2. Identify support or resustance on a pull back, or breakout-pull back (the best)
3. Use Order Flow and OrderBook sentiment bar to identify sentiment and pressure
4. Wait for a signal from MFSI and confirmation from PA with a price moving same way, on a decent volume at least through the half of a first M1 candle and enter
5. Decent pressure on OBFX viewer bar is a big bonus
6. Start trading option/stops run around 2-2.5 hours before expiration on counter-trend breakout/pull-back

Not to do:
1. Don't trade after 4 PM CET
2. Don't trade ranging market and indecision
3. Don't trade against immediate trend and H1 trend if present
4. Don't trade against an expiring option or noted stops cluster

Order Flow scalp

I have started to study some order flow trading, I got a trial of OrderBookFX software, and here is an attempt to scalp M1 market with an entry confirmed by the order book imbalance: at the moment of entry order book was heavily skewed towards offers and indicated strong selling pressure. Setup itself is a range top with stochastics cross and exit from overbought area but exact entry was based on chart pattern and volume indicating struggle to move higher with small candles produced on high volume (churn). This type of consolidate can be before reversal or breakout, but when I saw the heat building up in the order book with lots of offers above the area, I went short and price followed in a couple of minutes. I took only 14 pips but about 50 was available, the sell-off was pretty big and order book imbalance big too. Stop was only 5 pips. P/L 2.8:1

Another one: this went around 12 pips against me, but I consciously entered against a trend as I saw a point of exhaustion and anticipated a bigger run for stops above swing highs and potentially up to 1.3700 before down trend will resume. I went with a half normal lot (0.25% risk) and was tolerating up to 18 pips floating loss. It went then up to 16 pips in profit, but then I saw bears starting to take control over order flow, pressing lower and a climax low candle down on a big volume where I bailed out for 9.3 pips (on half lot, so 4.65 pips normal lot equivalent).

Morning glory G/U classical trade

I did not take it, but I had order in place, just removed because went on a conference call. Anyways, this is a classic example of range breaking trade on high volume with nice VSA confirmation. Good 20 pips with risk 10 (drawdown was only a matter of spread).

VSA S/D 15M U/CAD trade

I took this trade primarily from VSA perspective as it did not reach my level where I looked for long (STT from 1D area). However VSA shown some good reversal sign and I decided to go after I have seen price reversed from small supply area on M15 from Friday. I took only 10 pips as bias is bearish and I will be looking to long from a lower level using VSA.

First trade of the week - a 33 pips winner on G/U

Ok, that was one with a bigger stop, so it accounts to win of normal 10 pips, but entry was placed last week and trade got triggered on Friday late night, I closed down for profit manually when opened charts this morning as price struggles at 1.65 which is a very strong resistance area and supply is abundant. My mistake in the first place was to place take profit at 1.6520, I should have noted significance of 1.65 and place tp just before that. Nevertheless week is nicely opened with a profit trade.

Many losers on pending order entry, great winner on VSA

Today was a bad day for lazy trading - that is using pending entries. I got 3 losers on EU (however only one entry was justified, other two were rushed in, one of these was market order but I opened it without confirmation so no different than limit ones). However I waited a bit and took market order entry after EU had topped out and produced down candle on decent volume, after market shown buying climax and high churn. I took 30 pips out of it, but there were at least 10 more to gulp. As usual. Best trading in terms of closing out is when I am not around. My EU win covered all three losers, the only damage left to fix is from AU loser. I will look for confirmed trades only today since there are some commercial and central bank buying happening today which drives market through supply-demand areas with ease.

E/U M5 S/D scalp

Off the bottom of trend line and supply area. Took 20 pips with SL less than 15.

Several losses today

EURUSD scalp M5 with VSA

Similar setup to AUDUSD one. Once I saw support zone given up, and break through candle had a big volume (selling climax as per indicator, but rather mark down), I placed pending buy at the bottom of the zone. It took me in, closed manually for 11 pips at the level where previous two candles indicated minor demand.

Two successful AUDUSD M5 scalps

First one is using sell stop below the previous support area with a view that if triggered the break through will be bigger. Took 11 pips. After this trade placed limit offer at the bottom of the same area with a view that it will bounce up again and take me in again. This is what happened. Take profit order triggered for healthy 23.2 pips profit. In both cases stops were above the zone.

5M VSA S/D scalp

Eurodollar was rising through the day, seemed to top out, then gone through the support area of previous demand. I put a limit bid order at the lower side of this area. Took 11 pips profit.

UK CPI trade

While I recon it is one of the best fade trades on calender, today it wasn't so good. I used M15 to enter, but looked at M1 for VSA signal. Once I got it I was in. Trade moved into profit immediately, but I had a big spread on broker so wasn't looking to close soon. It moved about 15 pips into profit and then reversed. After few moves like that it actually went to 30 pips profit where my TP1 was but failed to close part of the trade due to damned spread again. Eventually Fitch announced AAA reaffirmation for US and GU blasted up. Quite soon it hit my SL, which I extended above supply level at 1.6400-1.6415. If I would be entering on the first reversed M15 candle I would be stopped out almost right away. It happens. Move on.

US Empire State Survey Live Trade

Here is the trade I took live just now. According to my setup I took it with 25 pips Stop Loss and progressive take profit at 15,30 and up to 60 pips profit on equal parts. However I looked at higher time frame before the trade and put some support and resistance lines as well as fibbed swing low to swing high for last weeks. Trade went short on EurJpy so I looked to long it. My 15 and 30 pips targets were before the next resistance line as well as before the 62.3% Fib line. However my 60 pips target was above resistance and Fib, so I decided 60 pips target to be optional and leave an option to close it early if price struggles. This is how it went...

My EA took 1/3 of position at 15 and then another 1/3 at 30 pips, however price pulled back and struggled showing some supply up there. Then approached 30TP again and system took another profit. I had very small position left (since there were not precise 1/3 but little less) which I closed manually in the same region. It is unlikely that price would go much further up without a swing down which would take me out of the trade so I cashed it in. Net result is 15+33+30 pips on average 27 pips gain on 25 pips risk which I consider excellent for high-probability scalping setups. 

US Initial Unempl. claims trade

I missed this one, as I looked at CAD Trade Balance instead and it was same time with Claims, and of course Claims have priority. CA Balance trade lost, while proper trade on Claims would be a winning one for 7 pips with risk of 10 pips.

Classic VSA scalp snapshot!

Classic VSA scalp setup! I wasn't near to take it. You see mark-up, then high volume churn that failed, you can also call it test, very good signal that supply has exhausted.

Another quick scalp on E/U M5 off supply level

+12 pips with 10 pips SL, 48.5 for today.

G/U 5M buy setup from supply zone

+14 pips on GU with 10 pips SL, idea for trade taken from @50pips blog!

E/U 5M Supply-Demand scalp

Just grabbed my 22 pips today on EU, short off formed supply/resistance with weekly pivot in there. Looked for candle volume, but it was relatively low and not enlightening. So I guess I just spotted a good level that is it. I planned originally for some 60 pips but decided it's too much to expect from M5 chart setup and better not to be greedy even on demo, steady profits make balance.

Stop was at 1.4290 in 19 pips from entry, could be closer actually, 15 pips.

AU EC trade

Another glorious setup. Unfortunately I did not trade it live, as my current broker had around 5 pips spread on A/U and with stop loss of 15 pips it would consume third of it immediately and increase risks. While I am waiting on getting account open with another broker, this setup would work like a charm:
- over 60 pips on first minute spike and around 85-90 to the low
- trading it off the 15M charts
- since the very first candle provided a bill pull back and was more looking like a pin bar it justified the entry without waiting for the next 15M candle
- 25 pips would be easily obtained (in fact up to 70) with 15 pips stop loss, trade never went into negative except spread on opening