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Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Thursday, 25 August 2011

US Initial Unempl Claims fade


A loser today. Went in as per my rules, but unfortunately a pullback moment was not sustainable and it reversed immediately and trade never seen a profit.


Correction to US Durables trade


I am an idiot. I posted a trade (and took it!!!) on EURO/USD, however my plan assumes a trade is taken on EUR/JPY as I never trade US news on EUR/USD!!! I lost 10 pips yesterday, but if taken properly on E/J it would yeild 7 points instead!!!



Wednesday, 24 August 2011

US Durable Goods fade - loss

A loosing fade trade today: SL10 with TP7. Release created unusual for this weak release reaction, probably due to lack of other news from US. After producing one reversal candle market went again into buying EURO/USD and quickly trade hit SL. Next please.


IFO Bussines climate fade

Small trade on aftermath of IFO release. First M1 candled pushed lower but reversed. We would be waiting for the confirming candle on M1 (since the first candle body was under 10 pips) and enter on its close. I did not take this trade, but I would go for 5 pips SL and 7 pips TP. Also it was possible to close half of the trade at 7 pips and let other half run with 7 pips trail stop. In this case second half would yield 1-2 pips only as trade quickly reversed.


Tuesday, 23 August 2011

Monday, 15 August 2011

US Empire State Survey Live Trade


Here is the trade I took live just now. According to my setup I took it with 25 pips Stop Loss and progressive take profit at 15,30 and up to 60 pips profit on equal parts. However I looked at higher time frame before the trade and put some support and resistance lines as well as fibbed swing low to swing high for last weeks. Trade went short on EurJpy so I looked to long it. My 15 and 30 pips targets were before the next resistance line as well as before the 62.3% Fib line. However my 60 pips target was above resistance and Fib, so I decided 60 pips target to be optional and leave an option to close it early if price struggles. This is how it went...
My EA took 1/3 of position at 15 and then another 1/3 at 30 pips, however price pulled back and struggled showing some supply up there. Then approached 30TP again and system took another profit. I had very small position left (since there were not precise 1/3 but little less) which I closed manually in the same region. It is unlikely that price would go much further up without a swing down which would take me out of the trade so I cashed it in. Net result is 15+33+30 pips on average 27 pips gain on 25 pips risk which I consider excellent for high-probability scalping setups. 


Thursday, 11 August 2011

US Initial Unempl. claims trade

I missed this one, as I looked at CAD Trade Balance instead and it was same time with Claims, and of course Claims have priority. CA Balance trade lost, while proper trade on Claims would be a winning one for 7 pips with risk of 10 pips.


AU EC trade

Another glorious setup. Unfortunately I did not trade it live, as my current broker had around 5 pips spread on A/U and with stop loss of 15 pips it would consume third of it immediately and increase risks. While I am waiting on getting account open with another broker, this setup would work like a charm:
- over 60 pips on first minute spike and around 85-90 to the low
- trading it off the 15M charts
- since the very first candle provided a bill pull back and was more looking like a pin bar it justified the entry without waiting for the next 15M candle
- 25 pips would be easily obtained (in fact up to 70) with 15 pips stop loss, trade never went into negative except spread on opening


Tuesday, 9 August 2011

UK Industrial production trade

Here is my first trade today according to new studies:
- one minute made over 20 pips,
- overall move down was 46 pips
- time frame chosen 5M
- stop loss 20
- take profit 30

Result: profit target reached!