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Monday 8 August 2011

Probability trading

Ok, I finally started my big project on quantifying a strategy for trading after-news underlying market mechanics. I plan to develop trading EA where appropriate setups for every type of news will be loaded and trade will be done automatically. Some big pips cooking, guys!



I have only gone through 11 reports and selected only 8 possible to trade and on average (using statistics for the last 12 months) it gives about 190 pips monthly weighed for 30 pips risk (obviously different setups have different SL but I put everything for the common divider). And only from 11 reports out of 50+ relatively important every month!

Setups are of high probability, i.e. they give ABOVE 4:1 win/loss ratio on pips won/lost, and 70-90% win/loss ratio on trades. There is no tendency to have repeated losses as all trades except one happen once a month so there no issue with "wrong market phase".

I really expect that it will be possible to trade as much as 5% of account with this strategy and consider it low-risk, in this case it will give a steady 25% account gain monthly.

This type of trade does not rely on trends, ranges or anything familiar from technical trade and exploits a very core feature of market mechanism which is impossible to eliminate. Strategy can be traded on any broker with small spreads and fast execution, typically any ECN MT4 even "ECN" (pretender), and as it trades AFTER news release (from 1-5, to 15-30 minutes after) there should not be issue with spread or slippage.

I plan to start testing it live this week manually and trading EA development will get started this week too. Wish me luck!

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